Pro meta.
The latest pro meta (16.11), next to what our model predicts for the live patch (16.13).
Pros don't play every patch, so “actual” presence is the most recent pro patch (16.11); the model
column is our current-patch (16.13) prediction. The gap between them is exactly what we're trying to call early.
Each champ is a dot: x = how often pros pick or ban it this patch, y = our model's
predicted prominence. Top-left is our edge — climbing in Korean
soloq before the draft catches up. Bottom-right is played by
pros but not backed by our data. The dense top band is the model agreeing the established meta is meta.
| Champ | Presence | Prev patch | Model | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Varus | 92% | 86% ▲ | 89% | model backs it |
| Bard | 72% | 52% ▲ | 99% | model backs it |
| Orianna | 64% | 83% ▼ | 97% | model backs it |
| Karma | 64% | 62% ▲ | 96% | model backs it |
| Cassiopeia | 62% | 66% ▼ | 96% | model backs it |
| Lee Sin | 56% | 39% ▲ | 100% | model backs it |
| Nocturne | 56% | 68% ▼ | 81% | model backs it |
| Jarvan IV | 51% | 58% ▼ | 99% | model backs it |
| Caitlyn | 46% | 42% ▲ | 99% | model backs it |
| Naafiri | 44% | 36% ▲ | 100% | model backs it |
| Nautilus | 44% | 49% ▼ | 99% | model backs it |
| Rumble | 41% | 52% ▼ | 94% | model backs it |
| Ryze | 38% | 37% | 99% | model backs it |
| Jayce | 36% | 34% ▲ | 100% | model backs it |
| Ezreal | 36% | 44% ▼ | 99% | model backs it |
| Annie | 36% | 39% ▼ | 98% | model backs it |
| Rakan | 36% | 11% ▲ | 95% | model backs it |
| Sion | 36% | 36% | 54% | model backs it |
| Ambessa | 33% | 26% ▲ | 100% | model backs it |
| Ashe | 33% | 36% ▼ | 88% | model backs it |
| Xin Zhao | 33% | 42% ▼ | 87% | model backs it |
| Lulu | 33% | 25% ▲ | 80% | model backs it |
| Akali | 31% | 40% ▼ | 95% | model backs it |
| Lucian | 31% | 43% ▼ | 88% | model backs it |
| Gnar | 28% | 31% ▼ | 100% | model backs it |
| Vi | 28% | 41% ▼ | 99% | model backs it |
| Shen | 28% | 11% ▲ | 92% | model backs it |
| Xayah | 28% | 7% ▲ | 83% | model backs it |
| Neeko | 28% | 21% ▲ | 71% | model backs it |
| Yone | 26% | 14% ▲ | 100% | model backs it |
| K'Sante | 26% | 26% | 100% | model backs it |
| Wukong | 26% | 35% ▼ | 99% | model backs it |
| Viktor | 26% | 22% ▲ | 96% | model backs it |
| Ziggs | 26% | 14% ▲ | 93% | model backs it |
| Seraphine | 26% | 37% ▼ | 76% | model backs it |
| Vayne | 26% | 29% ▼ | 74% | model backs it |
| Anivia | 26% | 25% | 70% | model backs it |
| Senna | 23% | 8% ▲ | 100% | model backs it |
| Twisted Fate | 23% | 28% ▼ | 98% | model backs it |
| Renekton | 23% | 22% | 98% | model backs it |
| Ornn | 23% | 8% ▲ | 91% | model backs it |
| Trundle | 23% | 28% ▼ | 83% | model backs it |
| Yorick | 21% | 16% ▲ | 93% | model backs it |
| Jhin | 18% | 21% ▼ | 99% | model backs it |
| Yunara | 18% | 14% ▲ | 99% | model backs it |
| Poppy | 18% | 11% ▲ | 99% | model backs it |
| Ahri | 18% | 19% | 99% | model backs it |
| Aurora | 18% | 22% ▼ | 83% | model backs it |
| Mel | 18% | 12% ▲ | 77% | model backs it |
| Milio | 18% | 24% ▼ | 68% | model backs it |
| Galio | 15% | 13% ▲ | 99% | model backs it |
| Miss Fortune | 15% | 18% ▼ | 82% | model backs it |
| Rell | 13% | 3% ▲ | 100% | model backs it |
| Pantheon | 13% | 36% ▼ | 97% | model backs it |
| Sylas | 13% | 7% ▲ | 96% | model backs it |
| Sivir | 13% | 17% ▼ | 85% | model backs it |
| Blitzcrank | 13% | 1% ▲ | 78% | model backs it |
| Zaahen | 10% | 9% | 100% | model backs it |
| Olaf | 10% | 18% ▼ | 99% | model backs it |
| Alistar | 10% | 10% | 97% | model backs it |
| Camille | 10% | 3% ▲ | 96% | model backs it |
| Lissandra | 10% | 1% ▲ | 86% | model backs it |
| Shyvana | 10% | 2% ▲ | 65% | model backs it |
| LeBlanc | 8% | 11% ▼ | 96% | model backs it |
| Taliyah | 8% | 16% ▼ | 93% | model backs it |
| Nasus | 8% | 3% ▲ | 89% | model backs it |
| Maokai | 8% | 7% | 81% | model backs it |
| Pyke | 8% | 7% | 78% | model backs it |
| Sejuani | 8% | 3% ▲ | 54% | model backs it |
| Jax | 5% | 8% ▼ | 100% | model backs it |
| Skarner | 5% | 17% ▼ | 99% | model backs it |
| Thresh | 5% | 2% ▲ | 99% | model backs it |
| Gragas | 5% | 2% ▲ | 97% | model backs it |
| Corki | 5% | 16% ▼ | 94% | model backs it |
| Zoe | 5% | new | 85% | model backs it |
| Kog'Maw | 5% | 2% ▲ | 76% | model backs it |
| Yuumi | 5% | 4% | 69% | model backs it |
| Dr. Mundo | 5% | 1% ▲ | 68% | model backs it |
| Azir | 5% | 11% ▼ | 56% | model backs it |
| Renata Glasc | 5% | 1% ▲ | 51% | model backs it |
| Kai'Sa | 3% | 3% | 100% | model backs it |
| Aphelios | 3% | 4% | 100% | model backs it |
| Nidalee | 3% | 4% | 99% | model backs it |
| Tristana | 3% | 1% | 99% | model backs it |
| Malphite | 3% | 4% | 99% | model backs it |
| Rek'Sai | 3% | 4% | 85% | model backs it |
| Kalista | 3% | 4% | 81% | model backs it |
| Gangplank | 3% | 1% | 77% | model backs it |
| Braum | 3% | 4% | 76% | model backs it |
| Kha'Zix | 3% | new | 71% | model backs it |
| Illaoi | 3% | 1% | 63% | model backs it |
These are pending calls. Historically, ~55% of our early new-pick calls go on to reach pro play — see the named ledger on the Track record.
| Champ | Model | Presence now |
|---|---|---|
| Syndra | 100% | 0% |
| Tryndamere New | 100% | 0% |
| Qiyana New | 100% | 0% |
| Viego | 99% | 0% |
| Gwen New | 99% | 0% |
| Vladimir New | 98% | 0% |
| Zyra New | 97% | 0% |
| Quinn New | 96% | 0% |
| Bel'Veth | 95% | 0% |
| Diana New | 95% | 0% |
| Kindred New | 94% | 0% |
| Darius New | 93% | 0% |
Model is our scorer's predicted likelihood the champ shows up in pro play; presence is how
often it actually did (pick+ban share). They're related but not the same unit, so read the comparison as a
direction. Agreement on the current patch is partly a mirror — the model is trained to predict presence —
so the real test of an emerging call (high model, low presence now)
is whether it climbs next patch, which is exactly what the Track record measures.